Reprinted from "International News Network":
Rockefeller Foundation Green Power Gap: 72 countries, including 20 countries in Asia, need 8,700 terawatt-hours of clean energy
The Rockefeller Foundation released a new report today that calculates a “green electricity gap” of 8,700 terawatt hours (TWh) across 72 countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East. These countries, home to 3.8 billion people today, must deploy 8,700 TWh of clean energy by 2050—roughly twice the annual electricity generation of the United States—to leap from more traditional, expensive, and inefficient power systems to an energy-abundant future.“The Green Power Gap: Achieving an Energy-Abundant Future for Everyone” also identifies a green window of opportunity and proposes four new pathways to close the gap.
“The lives of 3.8 billion people and the fate of the planet itself will depend on whether we can close the green electricity gap,” said Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of the Rockefeller Foundation. “History clearly shows that people and countries will pursue opportunities regardless of climate consequences. The only way to achieve global climate goals is to scale up solutions and mobilize the capital needed to ensure that 3.8 billion people have enough clean electricity to improve their lives and livelihoods.”
The 72 countries analyzed in the report represent 68 countries that fall below the modern energy minimum standard (MEM), defined as annual per capita use of less than 1,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) required to lift people out of poverty, create jobs, and drive economic development. The report also includes four additional countries* that are above the MEM threshold, but are placed in the “energy poor” category because a large portion of their populations remain well below the MEM.
Of the 72 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (Bolivia, El Salvador*, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua) and the Middle East (Syria and Yemen), Africa has only eight, while Asia has 20.
Asia:
1) Afghanistan 2) Bangladesh 3) Cambodia 4) India* 5) Indonesia* | 6) Kiribati 7) Micronesia 8) Myanmar 9) Nepal 10) North Korea | 11) Pakistan 12) Papua New Guinea 13) Philippines 14) Samoa 15) Solomon Islands | 16) Sri Lanka 17) East Timor 18) Tonga 19) Tuvalu 20) Vanuatu |
“While there is no one-size-fits-all answer to a clean energy-abundant future, we believe there is a ‘green window of opportunity’ based on Asia’s existing power system assets and the availability of renewable energy,” said Deepali Khanna, Vice President and Head of the Rockefeller Foundation’s Asia Regional Office. “Countries in the region, particularly India and Indonesia, have paved the way by deploying renewable energy technologies at an unprecedented scale.”
For this report, the Rockefeller Foundation divides 193 UN member states into three categories: (1) “Advanced Economies,” which are the 55 countries defined by the World Bank as high-income, (2) “Energy Poor Countries,” which represent the 68 energy-poor countries plus the four additional countries identified above*, and (3) “Emerging Economies,” which represent the 66 countries in between the two categories (consumption in this group has increased by nearly 4,000 kWh per year over the past 50 years, compared to an increase of only 500 kWh in “Energy Poor” countries).
The green electricity gap is calculated by determining global carbon emissions while keeping global temperatures below 1.75°C and taking into account population growth and development goals. It also assumes that 55 “advanced” and 66 “emerging” countries will reach net zero emissions by 2050 and 2060, respectively.
Based on these calculations, the scenario’s remaining 207 gigatonnes (GT) of carbon budget leaves considerable room for growth in the 72 “energy poor” countries. Focusing on the power sector alone, fossil fuel generation can grow modestly in the short term, but green power must dominate in the long term. For example, by 2030, about two-thirds of total electricity generation in energy poor countries could still come from fossil fuels. But by 2040, that share would need to fall to 30%, and net zero emissions would have to be achieved by 2070.
Four pathways to closing the gap
Achieving energy abundance will require a convergence of technologies, but that convergence will vary widely depending on countries’ resources and needs. Each country’s existing power system assets and the availability of renewable energy assets will determine which types of green leapfrogging opportunities are most viable. Based on this, the report identifies four pathways for achieving clean energy abundance with modern technologies. They are:
1. Gradual grid greening: This pathway is suitable for countries such as India that have developed grids and a large number of centralized fossil fuel generation assets.
2. Hybrid grid renewable development: This pathway is suitable for countries such as Nigeria that have limited grid and generation capacity but high population density.
3. Decentralized solar storage: This pathway is suitable for countries such as Burkina Faso that have excellent solar resources but limited grid development and access to other renewable resources.
4. Decentralized renewable portfolio: This pathway is suitable for countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo that have limited grid and generation assets but have a variety of high-quality renewable resources.
“Closing the green power gap is in every country’s interest,” said Dr. Joseph Curtin, managing director of the Rockefeller Foundation’s power and climate team and co-author of the report. “In addition, these 72 countries have superior renewable resources compared to countries that have already deployed renewables at scale. So, rather than following the path taken by many advanced economies, they have the opportunity to leapfrog to a green window for cleaner, more flexible, and resilient power systems.”
The Rockefeller Foundation aims to explore these different pathways in more detail in future analyses.
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